September 2023 Victoria Market Update and Fall Forecast

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September 2023 Victoria Market Update and Fall Forecast

See video followed by written blog

This is the Greater Victoria September BC Housing Market Update and Fall Forecast. The data is from the Victoria Real Estate Board released Oct 3, 2023. Also included is our forecast on what we think will be happening in the Victoria market for the remainder of the year. Watch for our take on the coming fall and winter 2023 thoughts. Let us know in your area how the real estate market is doing.

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If you want to chat to find out more about buying or selling in Victoria, finding out the value of your home, or any other real estate topic then simply book a Phone or Zoom call at this link:


Rosemary and Gary

“We love people and we love homes!”

Read the Full Written Blog Here

Market Update For September 2023

We are seeing the market continue to cool this fall. This is not entirely unexpected as 10 Bank of Canada rate increases since March 2022 from 1% to 5% has made it much more expensive for first time buyers, and as well, really for all buyers who require a mortgage. If you are in the fortunate situation of owning your own home and downsizing and will not need a mortgage to buy then this is actually becoming a better time to buy. 

At the end of September there were 2,699 active listings for sale on the Victoria Real Estate Board Multiple Listing Service® at the end of September 2023, an increase of 8.4% compared to the previous month of August and a 17.3% increase from the 2,300 active listings for sale at the end of September 2022. 

This suggests a movement in the market moving from a Seller’s Market towards a more balance market. There are a few videos on our site explaining these terms. This is a good start

A total of 493 properties sold in the Victoria Real Estate Board region this September, 20.2% more than the 410 properties sold in September 2022 and a 9.4% decrease from August 2023. Sales of condominiums were up 23% from September 2022 with 155 units sold. Sales of single family homes increased 3.2% from September 2022 with 228 sold.

Contact us if you want more information on the Home Price Index pricing or detailed statistics from the various areas in Greater Victoria or your specific area.

This tells us sales are up from a year ago but have declined since August. Normally, in the Victoria market, we would expect a bit of an increase in September from the slow times of August when many families are on holidays.

We think last month’s slowing sales is because the recent rate increases have kept people watching instead of buying leaving more units available.

This is not all bad if you are buying as there is a larger selection and you might be able to negotiate better prices and terms due to the slowing market. 

For sellers, however, this is not ideal and you may have to offer some additional concessions to encourage buyers to have a look at your property as you have more competition. Give us a call if you would like to find out more about this. 

In both cases the number of active units for sale would need to be around the 4,500 level to truly be in a balanced market where there were matching buyers and sellers. This is the ideal. However, we have not seen this in many years as the demand for homes has outstripped the new supply of homes. 

Before the rate increases, Rosemary and I would see multiple offers frequently with the accepted offer in about 6 days. Now, homes generally stay for sale a lot longer, sometimes taking over 30 days to sell. So, you may need some patience. We just sold a lovely townhouse in Central Saanich in 6 days. We are still finding that good homes well prepared for sale, priced right, and advertised well will still sell in a relatively short time. It is important to do all the right things when selling. We can help you with that.

What To Expect This Fall

We expect October and the first part of November to be similar to September. We believe the Federal Government will not do any more rate increases this year (but we are guessing). We think this because inflation has fallen quite dramatically, which was the key driver for the increased rates. Also, the Government is getting a lot of flak from house owners whose mortgage renewals have skyrocketed their monthly mortgage payments and some provincial politicians have forwarded letters to the government asking for no more rate increases. We saw an increase in one of our own mortgages of $900 a month! OUCH!! We don’t believe the Feds want to make things worse and will keep a watchful eye for a while. There are some suggestions for rate decreases next year but we have no real way to determine this yet. So, we will keep our own eyes peeled for indications of this and will let you know in a future market update.

Many people also think that late November and December buying and selling are non-existent. Yes, it’s true that things do slow down and around Christmas there is no action.

However, when there is a need such as someone wanting to be in their new home to have their Christmas celebrations then things can get active. If you are downsizing, you might find a lot less competition in buying at that time so talk to your Realtor®.

Over the next few years, we expect demand to improve and sales to increase as interest rates decline, hopefully in the next year. Victoria is the place to live in Canada with its beauty, warm climate, entertainment, things to do, and plentiful jobs in high tech and tourist industries, and the government.

All these things will keep people coming and real estate prices increasing over the years. We still believe real estate is a good investment for the long term.

We Are Just Like You

I just wanted to comment briefly about how we, as Realtors®, are really just like you the sellers and buyers. Realtors® try to help their clients and we coach and teach people on the process and what they can expect to happen during either the buying or selling of their properties. 

We don’t make things up! Rosemary and I, for example, are currently selling a legal licensed short-term rental condo we have owned and operated for 6 years.

And you know, we are asking the same questions you might when selling your home. How many viewings have we got this week, what kind of interest has there been, has there been an interest in making an offer, when can we expect it will be sold and so on… We have the same concerns on whether it will sell or not and when and for how much. We get it and having done this for our own real estate and many other people so we do understand through experience how it all goes and we feel your pain and concern when in the middle of a deal. Good Realtors® will walk through all of this with you to reduce your stress and make buying and selling enjoyable and not a burden.

If you would like to know what your home is worth today then you can request this from us and we will do a Comparative Market Analysis for your home showing its market value. 

Please share this information with your friends. 

Thanks for taking time to read this market update and forecast.